Industrial policy, uncertainty, and analysts' earnings forecast: Evidence from China

作者：Wang, Jiangyuan; Gan, Jiawu; Li, Zhen^*

来源：Economic Analysis and Policy, 2021, 70: 249-258.

DOI：10.1016/j.eap.2021.02.013

• Industrial policy
• Accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts
• Uncertainty
• Industry competition

On the basis of the revitalization plans of 10 industries implemented by the Chinese government in 2009, this study analyzes the relationship between industrial policies and analysts' earnings forecasts. We find that industrial policies lead to a decline in the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. Our mechanism analysis confirms that the uncertainties caused by these industrial policies have a mediating effect on this relationship. In view of the effects of industrial policies as a mechanism for the government to intervene in the market, the negative effects of these policies on the role of analysts and their increasing effects on uncertainties are both more significant in competitive industries.

• 单位
  云南财经大学