Conflict and natural resource condition: An examination based on national power heterogeneity

Authors：Cao, Qian; Feng, Zhiying; Yang, Runze^*; Yang, Cunyi^*

Source：Resources Policy, 2024, 89: 104549.

DOI：10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104549

• Geopolitical risk
• Ecological condition
• National power
• Economic power
• Moderating effect
• Heterogeneity

The impact of geopolitical conflict on natural resource condition, under the lens of national power heterogeneity, is a burgeoning area of research. Previously, scholars predominantly utilized CO2 as a representative indicator for environmental degradation, however, this simplistic approach falls short in explaining the intricate dynamics leading to ecological deficits. In this article, we adopt a more comprehensive indicator, natural resource condition, to better depict the state of environmental degradation for investigative purposes. We employ a double fixed-effects model to investigate the effect of geopolitical conflict on the condition of natural resources, and integrate several proxy indicators of national power to undertake moderating effect and heterogeneity analyses. Our research demonstrates that geopolitical conflict significantly deteriorates a country's natural resource condition, resulting in either a decrease in ecological surplus or an increase in ecological deficit. Additionally, it is found that strengthening a country's overall power can alleviate this adverse impact. The significant influence of this moderating effect is verified through multiple heterogeneity tests differentiated by economic power. More specifically, countries with potent economic power appear to be less affected by geopolitical conflict on their natural resource condition, whereas those with weaker economic power experience more severe negative impacts. Our findings contribute to a broader understanding of the impact of geopolitical conflict on the environment and provide valuable insights for developing countries aiming to alleviate the deterioration of their natural resource condition from a geopolitical perspective.

• Institution
  中山大学