Carbon-neutral potential analysis of urban power grid: A multi-stage decision model based on RF-DEMATEL and RF-MARCOS

作者：Du, Puliang; Gong, Xiaomin^*; Han, Bei; Zhao, Xuemei

来源：EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS, 2023, 234: 121026.

DOI：10.1016/j.eswa.2023.121026

• Carbon-neutral potential analysis
• Urban power grid
• RF-DEMATEL
• RF-MARCOS
• Internal and external uncertainties

As a hub connecting power production and consumption, the urban power grid (UPG) is the basis for realizing the carbon-neutral goal. To ensure carbon-neutral progress, it is necessary to conduct an effective analysis of carbon-neutral potential from the UPG perspective. Given this, this paper proposes a multi-stage decision model that integrates Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) and Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution (MARCOS) methods under the rough-fuzzy (RF) environment. Firstly, a multi-dimensional attribute system is innovatively established, and then the rough-fuzzy number is presented to assemble assessment information of groups and to manipulate internal and external uncertainties during decision process. Subsequently, the RF-DEMATEL is utilized to determine the importance-weights of the attributes, in which the interrelationships between attributes are fully considered. Finally, the RF-MARCOS is developed and applied to obtain carbon-neutral potential analysis results based on utility functions in relation to the ideal and anti-ideal solutions. A case study is conducted based on the proposed methodology, and the stability and robustness of the results are verified through sensitive and comparative analysis. This research contributes theoretically and practically to related literature by providing a systematic model capable of handling decision problems with complexity and uncertainty.

• 单位
  上海交通大学