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摘要
Flexible options are expected to be adopted in climate change mitigation strategies due to the high uncertainty of climate change. Real options analysis (ROA) matches the feature of filling flexibility under climate change but is seldom leveraged in the decision-making of strategy investment at the building scale. This study proposes a ROAbased decision-making framework to bridge this research gap. First, the future energy consumption is simulated, and the expected yearly future energy loss caused by climate change is calculated. Then, individual and sequential investment analyses are made based on ROA and three strategies (i.e., "shading", "photovoltaic panels", and "shading + photovoltaic panels"). Finally, a sensitivity analysis for optimal investment time, investment sequence, etc., is performed, and regression analysis is used to prove and extend the sensitivity analysis results. The results show that climate change uncertainty does not alter the optimal individual and sequential investment strategies. However, increasing the discount rate advances the optimal investment time and shows an exponential relationship with the premium. The enhancement of forcing has a "marginal effect" on project return and it advances the optimal investment year for individual investment. Additionally, the forcing positively correlates with the benefit of deferring the option under shared socioeconomic pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 but it negatively correlates with the benefit of deferring the option under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. The unit dry bulb temperature under certain forcing yields a range of benefits from 0.47 x 106 to 0.90 x 106 USD when deferring the option. This proposed decision-making framework guides the development of mitigation strategies and provides more managerial flexibility for investors.
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