ScholarMate
WeChat
Sina
Facebook
Share link
Summary
Purpose: To explore the esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality trends and risk factors in China during 2005-2015. @@@ Materials and Methods: The data were stratified by area (urban, rural), gender (male, female), and age groups (0 similar to, 5 similar to, ..., 85 similar to). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR), age-specific incidence and mortality were calculated to describe the trends, which were analyzed by Joinpoint software, negative binomial regression model, and age-period-cohort model. @@@ Results: Trends in EC ASIR decreased markedly during 2010-2015 (APC=-6.14%, P<0.05), and the average annual percent change (AAPC) value was -8.07% (95% confidence interval (CI): -9.98 similar to-6.12) for rural areas during 2005-2015. The ASMR was on a fast-downward trend after 2011 (APC=-6.67%, P<0.05), with AAPC values of -1.34% (95% CI: - 2.56 similar to-0.19) for males, -3.39% (95% CI: -5.65, -1.07) for females, and -9.67% (95% CI: - 10.56 similar to-8.77) for rural areas during 2005-2015. The age-specific incidence and mortality increased with age. The risk of EC for males was 3.1675 times higher than females (P<0.001), and for urban areas, it was 0.58 times larger than rural (P<0.001). The age and period effects presented an increasing trend, with a decreasing trend for the cohort effects in incidence and mortality risk. Later birth cohorts presented lower risks than previous birth cohorts. @@@ Conclusion: ASIR and ASMR in China are higher in males than females, and higher in rural than urban areas, which have decreased during 2005-2015, especially in rural areas. The incidence increased with age up to the peak age group of 75. Area, gender, and age were independent risk factors for EC incidence.
-
Institution武汉大学; 南方医科大学
