The COVID-19 pandemic in various restriction policy scenarios based on the dynamic social contact rate

摘要

The social contact rate has influenced the transmission of COVID-19, with more social contact resulting in more contagion cases. We chose 18 countries with the most confirmed cases in the first 200 days after the Wuhan lockdown. This was the first study using the dynamic social contact rate to simulate the epidemic under diverse restriction policies over 500 days since the COVID-19 outbreak. The developed General Dynamic Model suggested that the probability of contagion ranged from 12.52% to 39.39% in the epidemic. The geometric mean of the social contact rates differed from 18.21% to 96.00% between countries. The restriction policies in developed econ-omies were 3.5 times more efficient than in developing economies. We compare the effectiveness of different policies for disease prevention and discuss the influence of policy adjustment fre-quency for each country. Maintaining the tightest restriction or alternate tightening and loosening restrictions was recommended, with each having an average 72.45% and 79.78% reduction in maximum active cases, respectively.

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