Can Shorts Predict Returns? A Global Perspective

作者:Boehmer, Ekkehart; Huszar, Zsuzsa R.; Wang, Yanchu; Zhang, Xiaoyan*; Zhang, Xinran
来源:Review of Financial Studies, 2022, 35(5): 2428-2463.
DOI:10.1093/rfs/hhab079

摘要

Using multiple short-sale measures, we examine the predictive power of short sales for future stock returns in 38 countries from July 2006 to December 2014. We find that the days-to-cover ratio and the utilization ratio measures have the most robust predictive power for future stock returns in the global capital market. Our results display significant cross-country and cross-firm differences in the predictive power of alternative short-sale measures. The predictive power of shorts is stronger in countries with nonprohibitive short sale regulations and for stocks with relatively low liquidity, high shorting fees, and low price efficiency.

  • 单位
    中央财经大学; 清华大学