A novel fractional discrete nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for forecasting the wind turbine capacity of China

摘要

Purpose A new method for forecasting wind turbine capacity of China is proposed through grey modelling technique. Design/methodology/approach First of all, the concepts of discrete grey model are introduced into the NGBM(1,1) model to reduce the discretization error from the differential equation to its discrete forms. Then incorporating the conformable fractional accumulation into the discrete NGBM(1,1) model is carried out to further improve the predictive performance. Finally, in order to effectively seek the emerging coefficients, namely, fractional order and nonlinear coefficient, the whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is employed to determine the emerging coefficients. Findings The empirical results show that the newly proposed model has a better prediction performance compared to benchmark models; the wind turbine capacity from 2019 to 2021 is expected to reach 275954.42 Megawatts in 2021. According to the forecasts, policy suggestions are provided for policy-makers. Originality/value By combing the fractional accumulation and the concepts of discrete grey model, a new method to improve the prediction performance of the NGBM(1,1) model is proposed. The newly proposed model is firstly applied to predict wind turbine capacity of China.

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