Modelling contagion of financial crises

作者：Huang, Weihong; Chen, Zhenxi^*

来源：North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2020, 54: 100793.

DOI：10.1016/j.najef.2018.06.007

• Financial crash
• Contagion
• Heterogeneous agents

Inspired by the empirical findings, we include international traders to capture linkage between markets and propose a two-market heterogeneous agents model to simulate financial crisis with contagion effect. This paper manages to calibrate sudden crash behavior of US and UK stock markets during "Black Monday" of 1987 besides smooth crisis and disturbing crisis categorized in literature. It is implied that financial crisis and its contagion could be endogenous, which supports a scenario of over-valuation causing a financial crisis. In addition, the model shows that financial system could be fragile in which small shock(s) hitting individual market's fundamental could cause financial crisis spreading to the other market. This also supports a scenario of external shock triggering a financial crisis. Lastly, to demonstrate the relevance of our model to financial markets, we manage to match typical stylized facts, especially cross-correlation which is exclusive to a multiple-market case.

• 单位
  南阳理工学院